Friday, June 3, 2011

Life is just the odds of certain events happening

Life is a series of events that define our very existence and these events start in the womb of our mother. Medically all of these events occurring in the womb are separate and not related to each other. They are all independent of each other and not mutually exclusive as stated before.

The odds of being born straight are approximately 9 in 10 or 90% thus the odds of being born homosexual in some form including bisexual is 1 in 10 or 10%. People will try and skew these percentage but these are the approximate odds based on basically every known study. A few points here and there are relatively insignificant statistically. I really do believe we are born straight or gay and it is why homosexual is not part of the DSM and rightfully so. Any wingnut that believes otherwise is well a wingnut.

Thus being homosexual is 1/10 or 1 chance in 10 and is equally distributed between male and female based on most studies.  We are not considering experimentation here but those that identify as gay, lesbian or bisexual which is around 10% of the US population and a generally accepted percentage worldwide although some want us to believe it is higher.  It is not. Certain traditional values people will claim otherwise with non scientific polls but for my purposes I am choosing 10% because it is easier to use so forget about it.

Based on current statistics the odds of being born intersex is 1.7  in 100 which is the highest number I could locate.  This includes all forms of intersex condition from hermaphrodite to mosaic or 47 XXY (Klinefelter) which is a favorite of certain pseudo transsexuals because they can use it to fool the wife. The XXY syndrome occurs in 1 in 500 males and is actually quite rare and 99% of all XXY births are sterile.  Being born XXY is an independent event and has no relationship to being born transsexual. When a child born intersex has their genitals altered at birth the issues they have later in life is NOT Transsexual. It is a horrible case of mutilation done before the child realizes their true sex and is not in any way related to gender or transsexualism although the symptoms may appear similar.  There sex was altered at birth by some quack which is not the same as being born transsexual.

The odds in being born transsexual are approx 1 in 30,000.  I think this is incorrect but for this post I will accept it as valid when including all transsexuals. Harry thought it was closer to 1 in 100,000 were born Type V and 1 in 300,000 were born type VI which means being born transsexual is 1 in 75,000 births based on combinatorial odds.  Using 300 million as US population there are 3000 Type V and 1000 Type VI or 4000 total in the US which means 4000 in 300 million or 1 in 75,000 Americans are transsexual.  The 1 in 30,000 estimate in my opinion includes a lot of others that may be marginally transsexual as in Type IV but I will let those percentages stand.

Just as a personal disclaimer I was tested at 12 in Boston at Children's Hospital and I was NOT XXY although I had low testosterone and slightly elevated estrogen levels which a doctor noted on the test results was abnormal but had been seen before and recommended androgen which my mom thankfully decided not to do.  She wrote to Benjamin and I was saved that insult. I was not androgen insensitive and androgen would have helped me be physically male but would more than likely have killed me or more accurately I would have killed me rather than face that. The doctors did know I wanted to be a girl even in late summer of 1958 because I was there when mom told them that was what I wanted.

The irony of my condition is I know more diagnosed Type VI transsexuals  than most anyone I know and around 50% were in some way like me but an equal number were not. I know only a few that were not like me that survived.  Unless one has lived what we lived it is honestly impossible to understand and I am also beginning to believe that unless one has lived what the older transitioners have lived then I can truly never understand and I will try and refrain from further comments because I never lived it.

Using probability the odds of events similar to the above happening to the same person are the product of the odds of each event.  in other words you multiple the odds.

Thus the odds of being born transsexual and XXY is 1/30000 times 1/500 or one in 15 million. Slightly better than winning the lotto but kind of more like the double whammy. The odds of this individual male born transsexual and XXY fathering children is 1/15,000,000 times 1/100 or one in 1.5 billion which means given the current world population of approx 7 billion that there are only 4.6 people in existence on the planet earth that could be born transsexual, XXY, and father children without medical fertility intervention.

Add to this the claims of certain individuals that they spontaneously feminized, not a condition of Klinefelter by the way, and the odds of a single human being born like this is statistically impossible but giving mother nature a break i will give in to one currently alive. I can post the names of two who post on T-Central and know of several others. It is statistically possible but even mother nature would be stretching herself.

It is similar to intersex.  The odds of being born intersex and transsexual is 1.7/100 times 1/30000 or 1.7 in 3 million so lets give the intersex the common decency and avoid calling ourselves intersex until we are classified as such.  We are born this way but it does not necessarily mean we are intersex. Eventually we might be but we will statistically not significantly alter the percentage of people truly born intersex.

The really interesting combination is sexual orientation and transsexualism.  Under normal circumstances one would expect only 1/10 times 1/30000 or 1 in 300K being born transsexual and homosexual at the same time but I think there are other factors at work here. I have begun to believe that conditioning has a lot to do with the higher percentage of lesbian transsexuals along with the fact there are more than a few heterosexual transvestites slipping through the transsexual cracks.

Essentially the older transsexuals condition or train themselves to be heterosexual men and it is a hard condition to break even after a sex change. I wish there was an honest study that checked with the mid-life to older transsexuals and studied how many see there sexual preference change. I am not sure how high it is but it is significant. I do know that statistically Type VI transsexuals follow the normal percentages for genetic women when it comes to percent that are lesbian. It happens and Benjamin knew this by the way.

After all of the events that define us a male or female are finalized it is really up to each one of us to lead our lives as best we can and to deal with the cards we were dealt. Some of us deal with them head on and others deal with them when they can no longer handle the conflict within.  None of us are better than the other we are just different.

Mathematics does not lie. Numbers do not lie unless the input is incorrect but then the result is only as good as the input. In the case of certain people that claim XXY as a transsexual condition it is at least assuring on my side that the possibility does exist that one such person might exist and hopefully we all get to watch them fight it out publicly as they try and prove I am the only possible XXY transsexual that could father children in the current world. Since the two I can think of quickly also claim spontaneous feminization I think we can exclude them and simply categorize them for what they are.  Frauds!!!

13 comments:

Teagan said...

I wrote about this a while ago, and did some math of my own, although my post wasn't about XXY stuff, it was analyzing the high proportion of lesbian transsexuals.

I initially made a couple of conclusions based on the statistical tests that I did. But, as I was writing the post, I realized that I made an incorrect assumption, as many of us ad-hoc statisticians do when we're doing such things. So I toned it down a little bit. Which sucked, because I thought it was an awesome conclusion, had the assumptions been valid.

I think the problem in your logic, Elizabeth, is that you can only multiply the odds if the events are mutually exclusive. We don't know for certain from a genetic perspective that XXY and transsexualism are mutually exclusive.

I don't disagree with you that there are way, way, WAY too many people claiming to be XXY and transsexual, but I don't think this test proves it.

Teagan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Teagan said...

Not "mutually exclusive" above. I meant "independent."

P(a ^ b) = P(a) * P(b) if and only if a and b are independent.

If they are mutually exclusive, P(a ^ b) = 0.

Elizabeth said...

Teagan mutually exclusive was intended to mean unrelated and one did not imply the other could occur but both could occur. Just another senior moment I am afraid. Thanks for pointing it out.

I will fix it.

Independent events are what all of it truly is. There is no correlation between XXY and transsexual and there is nothing that indicates there is so the computed odds are accurate if the presumed odds of each event are accurate.

The facts are indisputable about XXY people. They are 99%, even higher actually, sterile without intervention of a fertility doctor and that is dead accurate.

I realize you are a friend of one of the people making said claims but the facts are not in dispute. Taking her own words the odds of her being as she claims are essentially off any known chart. Her claim was made to confuse the wife and that was it. There was no spontaneous feminization unless one considers taking estrogen spontaneous feminization. The same can be said for the other one in Australia.

I will not make any assumption on their transsexuality but their need to justify their actions with a fantasy does leave some doubt.

Just being transsexual was not good enough although your friend long considered herself a transvestite and advertised herself as such.

The calculations are correct as the probability logic is correct. Excluding the insane claim of spontaneous feminization or claims of endocrine change there are no more than 4-5 people possibly alive with said condition. She is truly a walking miracle or more than likely a total bullshit artist or con-artist who abused her wife based on lies in order to spend the money on making herself pretty.

Her own blog says it all.

Ariel said...

While we're revising the numbers, "1 in 10" is an old number based on Alfred Kinsey's research that has since been considered too high. I believe current research puts the rate of homosexuality at more like 3-4 percent, not 10 percent.

Teagan said...

I realized as I was commenting that you might think I was defending on behalf of my friend.

Actually, I'm just kind of a math dork. The subject matter just happened to be the subject matter. :)

Elizabeth said...

@Teagan

I would not take offense if you defended a friend. That said the probability based on the numbers accurate. Since each event is independent to the best of our knowledge it is highly unlikely under the best of circumstances that certain individuals fantasies are true.

It does not mean they are not transsexual it just means the rest of it is crap.

Dawn1257 said...

The numbers are interesting.

We found out our son is 47 XXY not long ago. He was also born with a non-functioning pituitary gland. So he has never made growth hormone. He takes growth hormone shots everyday. He also being 47 XXY does not make testosterone because his testes are very, very tiny so, he also has to have testosterone injections once a month. He's almost intolerable as a person for several days after he gets that shot. He has never suffered from any form of gender/sex issue other then the physical situation described.

I have disclosed to you before a bit about my own physiology and history. Low testosterone levels, osteoporosis and other things. All found when I was in my mid forties. This was about the time too that I could no longer keep myself held back from being me.

It's what I found out about my hidden family history that blew my mind. The person I call my father adopted my brother and I when I was 11 and he was 9 after my mother and he married in 1968. So, I never really knew my biological father, except on brief occasions in my young life. When I came out to my mother in my mid-forties (my adoptive father had since passed away), mom told something that stopped me in my tracks. The reason she left my biological father when I was about eighteen months old and my brother just born was because he had been caught crossdressing. This was a long held family secret that she never told anyone about, except me when I confronted her about myself.

I won't lay any claim to have “spontaneously feminized ”. However, one of the fortunate physical issues for me is that I never used any anti-androgen in my transition. Only estrogen. and actually a relatively low dosage, too. I am the spitting image of my mother in more ways than just my facial looks. I was always told that I looked just like her when I was a child. I could post a picture but she would have a cow, lol. Anyway, I don't know if there is a bilogical connection between transsexual/crossdresser/intersex. But in my family it would appear that there is definitely something in the genes that just isn't right.

Dawn1257 said...

“Essentially the older transsexuals condition or train themselves to be heterosexual men and it is a hard condition to break even after a sex change. I wish there was an honest study that checked with the mid-life to older transsexuals and studied how many see there sexual preference change. I am not sure how high it is but it is significant. I do know that statistically Type VI transsexuals follow the normal percentages for genetic women when it comes to percent that are lesbian. It happens and Benjamin knew this by the way.”


An interesting thing happened this weekend. I was invited to a “committee meeting” at a local pub following my Kiwanis clubs annual involvement in our towns historical summer parade. It's a lot of fun, really. Anyway, it turned out that someone messed up the message about where the “committee” would meet. So, myself and a guy from the club ended up at the wrong pub. So, instead we just enjoyed ours company together on our own. What I was amazed at was how natural it felt to be sitting there and enjoying conversation with this gentleman as a woman would with another man. Nothing inappropriate happened nor were any intentions meant to be read into this. He's married, so am I. It was simply an experience that was purely accidental and I thoroughly enjoyed and felt wonderful about. So, it has caused me to wonder (privately until now), what would I do if I suddenly found myself not being in a committed relationship. Strangely enough, I also found this fellow, as a man to be charming, handsome and a total blast to be with. This is a first of this type feeling that I have recognized. Odd, but it was nice.

Not your friend said...

I don't buy the 1 in 10 for transsexuality.
I would like to see those studies.
Andrea James made a similar claim and couldn't back it up with any studies.

Elizabeth said...

Where did I say the odds of being transsexual was 1 in 10? I believe you must have had reading comprehension issues.

Elizabeth said...

Okay lesson one.

Under the Benjamin scale Type VI is the most severe or highest intensity transsexual at least initially because of complete psycho-sexual inversion (PSI). PSI kids believe they are girls and have little choice.

Type V are the "woman trapped in a man's body" designation and are the most frequent form of transsexualism. IMHO both are medical conditions but Type VI has extremely high intensity and are consider themselves heterosexual girls and are attracted to boys.

Most Type VI have a very difficult time not pushing boundaries because of the intense inner turmoil and they are the ones that transition young. It is rare for a Type V to transition early but IMHO Type V may be the worst for multiple reasons.

There is a lot of confusion for all transsexuals but Type V tend to fight their transsexualism and are more prone to coercion from adults and society. This is not a choice but the intensity and "need" to transition is not as intense early on.

There are really no choices in transsexualism just circumstances. I know of only two Type VI that ever made it to their 30's and survived and it was extreme conditions such as poverty or booze that aided them in lasting that long.

So IMHO Type VI has extremely high intensity early on and since they match cis women percentage wise most are attracted to boys at around the same age as girls are. Most of us refuse to give in to what others want and force issues or often run away and end up on the streets. Many of my friends sold themselves to survive initially.

Type V do not have complete psycho-sexual inversion but still have a feminized brain and whether that qualifies as partial inversion I do not know but there is a difference. Maybe that is why so many end up as lesbians because there is a difference between Type VI and Type V sexual orientation.

My path was what is was and I had to do it to survive because I would have been dead before growing up as a boy and becoming a man. It was just what it was. Most if not all Type VI feel that way. A modern example of a classic type VI is Kim Petras or Miss Mock.

In many ways I think it is far worse to have it linger into your adult life like it does for Type V. There might be 1000 to 1500 Type VI maximum at any one time in the US. It is rare and quite bluntly I would not wish it on my worst enemy as I would not wish any form of transsexualism on anyone.

Very few people know how badly "all" transsexuals suffer and in all honesty I do not understand how some deal with it so long but maybe it was because they are stronger than we were but one of the keys for many of us old timers is I can tell just by the words if someone is transsexual. You can never hide that kind of pain.

Not your friend said...

Ok My mistake I misread something in the first first half of the post.

While we are on the subject, I noticed you lumped bisexuals and homosexuals together. Because of social and political pressures I have held out little hope these numbers were ever correct.

I guess the big question is, how does this effect our daily lives.
We recognize something is wrong with us
We transition
We get on with our lives.